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ادامه مطلب
+ نوشته شده در  سه شنبه 1390/10/06ساعت   توسط دانشجو  | 

سلام مموش

رمز عبور شماره ایرانسلمه


ادامه مطلب
+ نوشته شده در  سه شنبه 1390/10/06ساعت   توسط دانشجو  | 

Lifetime Value Of A Customer
By Terry Roberts

Regarding the Web, there is a lot of buzz these days around concepts like CPM, click-through rates, cost-per-sale and cost per contact.

With the fast pace of Web developments, perhaps a short-term focus is inevitable. But I suggest that some attention to a classic tenet of marketing could have a dramatic impact on the decisions we make when it comes to Web marketing.

That tenet is the "lifetime value of a customer," or LV for short. The basic definition of LV is the total amount of sales revenue the average customer contributes to the company over the life of the relationship. Being able to determine that number is one of the many arguments for the importance of a customer database. By capturing all sales by customer in a database, the company can easily determine average lifetime value.

Once LV is known, one of the most strategic marketing questions that can be asked and answered by the company is, "How much are we willing to spend to secure a new customer if the LV of that customer is $X."

As you might imagine, the answer to that question is very different from the answer to the question, "How much are we willing to spend to secure one sale?" The difference often results in a much more thoughtful and higher-caliber marketing effort.

To take the example we've seen kicked around on this list, if a banner ad's CPM is $30, and the click-through rate is 3%, then it costs $1 to generate one visit to the site. If you're selling a $14.95 widget, the margin dollars may not justify that $1 marketing cost. But if the lifetime value of that visitor is $200, then that same $1 marketing cost suddenly becomes highly attractive and justified! In fact, the company may be willing to invest much more to secure that first sale.

But there is an even greater benefit to thinking in terms of lifetime value. It helps shift the company's focus from *getting a sale* to *creating a relationship*, and to thinking about what's possible to *keep and grow that relationship.* Also, once the focus is on LV, a focus on how to *increase* LV quickly follows. By necessity, that requires the company to emphasis quality of service, smart cross-selling, up-selling, and all sorts of other marketing strategies and tactics.

If the company is so new that there cannot be a known LV, it's never too early to start capturing the data to create one and updating it regularly. If nothing else, an LV can be estimated in the early stages.

The long and short of it is that thinking long-term leads to better marketing choices than thinking short-term.

 

 

customer lifetime value

In marketing, the economic value of a customer during the life of the customer's association with a business. An estimate of customer lifetime value allows a business to determine the amount of money that can be spent on acquiring and retaining a customer. For example, a high customer lifetime value may convince a credit card company to offer expensive incentives to attract new clients. Also called lifetime customer value.

 

In a consumer business, customer lifetime value is calculated by analyzing the behavior of a group of customers who have the same recruitment date. The revenue and cost for this group of customers is recorded, by campaign or season, and the overall contribution for that period can then be worked out. Industry experience has shown that the benefits to a business of increasing lifetime value can be enormous. A 5% increase in customer retention can create a 125% increase in profits; a 10% increase in retailer retention can translate to a 20% increase in sales; and extending customer life cycles by three years can treble profits per customer.

 

 

In marketing, customer lifetime value (CLV), lifetime customer value (LCV), or lifetime value (LTV) is the net present value of the cash flows attributed to the relationship with a customer. The use of customer lifetime value as a marketing metric tends to place greater emphasis on customer service and long-term customer satisfaction, rather than on maximizing short-term sales. One of the first accounts of it is in the 1988 book Database Marketing, and includes detailed worked examples [1] [2].

Customer lifetime value has intuitive appeal as a marketing concept, because in theory it represents exactly how much each customer is worth in monetary terms, and therefore exactly how much a marketing department should be willing to spend to acquire each customer. In reality, it is difficult to make accurate calculations of customer lifetime value. The specific calculation depends on the nature of the customer relationship. Customer relationships are often divided into two categories. In contractual or retention situations, customers who do not renew are considered "lost for good". Magazine subscriptions and car insurance are examples of customer retention situations. The other category is referred to as customer migrations situations. In customer migration situations, a customer who does not buy (in a given period or from a given catalog) is still considered a customer of the firm because she may very well buy at some point in the future. In customer retention situations, the firm knows when the relationship is over. One of the challenges for firms in customer migration situations is that the firm may not know when the relationship is over (as far as the customer is concerned) [3].

[edit] Calculation in customer retention cases

Most models to calculate CLV apply to the customer retention situation. These models make several simplifying assumptions and often involve the following inputs:

  • Churn rate, the percentage of customers who end their relationship with a company in a given period. One minus the churn rate is the retention rate. Most models can be written using either churn rate or retention rate. If the model uses only one churn rate, the assumption is that the churn rate is constant across the life of the customer relationship.
  • Discount rate, the cost of capital used to discount future revenue from a customer. Discounting is an advanced topic that is frequently ignored in customer lifetime value calculations. The current interest rate is sometimes used as a simple (but incorrect) proxy for discount rate.
  • Contribution margin.
  • Retention cost, the amount of money a company has to spend in a given period to retain an existing customer. Retention costs include customer support, billing, promotional incentives, etc.
  • Period, the unit of time into which a customer relationship is divided for analysis. A year is the most commonly used period. Customer lifetime value is a multi-period calculation, usually stretching 3–7 years into the future. In practice, analysis beyond this point is viewed as too speculative to be reliable. The number of periods used in the calculation is sometimes referred to as the model horizon.

Thus, one of the ways to calculate CLV, where period is a year, is as follows [4]:

,

where GC is yearly gross contribution per customer, M is the (relevant) retention costs per customer per year (this formula assumes the retention activities are paid for each mid year and they only affect those who were retained in the previous year), n is the horizon (in years), r is the yearly retention rate, d is the yearly discount rate.

It is often helpful to estimate customer lifetime value with a simple model to make initial assessments of customer segments and targeting. Possibly the simplest way to estimate CLV is to assume constant and long-lasting values for contribution margin, retention rate, and discount rates, as follows:

This article includes a list of references, related reading or external links, but its sources remain unclear because it lacks inline citations. Please improve this article by introducing more precise citations where appropriate. (September 2009)

In marketing, customer lifetime value (CLV), lifetime customer value (LCV), or lifetime value (LTV) and a new concept of "customer life cycle management" is the present value of the future cash flows attributed to the customer relationship. Use of customer lifetime value as a marketing metric tends to place greater emphasis on customer service and long-term customer satisfaction, rather than on maximizing short-term sales.

 

Calculation

This article needs additional citations for verification.
Please help improve this article by adding reliable references. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed.(September 2009)

Customer lifetime value has intuitive appeal as a marketing concept, because in theory it represents exactly how much each customer is worth in monetary terms, and therefore exactly how much a marketing department should be willing to spend to acquire each customer. In reality, it is difficult to make accurate calculations of customer lifetime value. The specific calculation depends on the nature of the customer relationship. Customer relationships are often divided into two categories. In contractual or retention situations, customers who do not renew are considered "lost for good". Magazine subscriptions and car insurance are examples of customer retention situations. The other category is referred to as customer migrations situations. In customer migration situations, a customer who does not buy (in a given period or from a given catalog) is still considered a customer of the firm because she may very well buy at some point in the future. In customer retention situations, the firm knows when the relationship is over. One of the challenges for firms in customer migration situations is that the firm may not know when the relationship is over (as far as the customer is concerned).

Most models to calculate CLV apply to the contractual or customer retention situation. These models make several simplifying assumptions and often involve the following inputs:

Churn rate

The percentage of customers who end their relationship with a company in a given period. One minus the churn rate is the retention rate. Most models can be written using either churn rate or retention rate. If the model uses only one churn rate, the assumption is that the churn rate is constant across the life of the customer relationship.

Discount rate

The cost of capital used to discount future revenue from a customer. Discounting is an advanced topic that is frequently ignored in customer lifetime value calculations. The current interest rate is sometimes used as a simple (but incorrect) proxy for discount rate.

Retention cost

The amount of money a company has to spend in a given period to retain an existing customer. Retention costs include customer support, billing, promotional incentives, etc.

Period

The unit of time into which a customer relationship is divided for analysis. A year is the most commonly used period. Customer lifetime value is a multi-period calculation, usually stretching 3–7 years into the future. In practice, analysis beyond this point is viewed as too speculative to be reliable. The number of periods used in the calculation is sometimes referred to as the model horizon.

Periodic Revenue

The amount of revenue collected from a customer in the period.

Profit Margin

Profit as a percentage of revenue. Depending on circumstances this may be reflected as a percentage of gross or net profit. For incremental marketing that does not incur any incremental overhead that would be allocated against profit, gross profit margins are acceptable.

 

+ نوشته شده در  چهارشنبه 1389/12/18ساعت   توسط دانشجو  | 

برند سبز

 

بحث برند سبز در ایران و حتی در دنیا هنوز بحث جدید و جنجال برانگیزی برای بازاریابان است.

مقاله ای در این مورد تالیف کرده و برای همایش مربوطه فرستادم که امیدوارم پذیرفته شود.

+ نوشته شده در  سه شنبه 1389/08/04ساعت   توسط دانشجو  | 

اگر آینده نگر هستید

اگر اهل سرمایه گذاری های کلان هستید

اگر آینده ی خود و خانوادتان برایتان مهم است

 

 

درباره ی بیمه عمر وپس انداز بخوانید

+ نوشته شده در  جمعه 1389/05/01ساعت   توسط دانشجو  | 

بیمه

 

بیمه جامع عمر و پس انداز،بیمه ای است که مزایای بیمه عمر و پس انداز اندوخته را شامل می شود.شما با دادن هر حق بیمه ای که خود تمایل دارید، میتوانید علاوه بر اندوخته کردن آن پول و گرفتن سود آن، از تسهیلات بیمه ای هم برخوردار شوید.

مزایا:

1- به پول شما حداقل 15 درصد سود تعلق میگیرد.

2- بعد از 10سال ، 2 برابر پولتان را بگیرید.

3- از تسهیلات از کار افتادگی برخوردار شوید.

4- پول اندوخته ی خود را وام بگیرید.

5- یک دفترچه بیمه درمان تکمیلی بگیرید.

6- از خدمات پرداخت هزینه پزشکی و بیماریهای خاص بهره مند شوید.

 

 

توضیح برگه:

انتخاب حق بیمه با شماست.حداقل آن ماهانه25000تومان/ سه ماهه50000تومان/شش ماهه 75000تومان/سالانه100000تومان میباشد.

مدت قرارداد از 2سال تا 30 سال بسته به تمایل شماست.

با پرداخت این حق بیمه علاوه بر پس انداز پول خود با سود 15 درصد از مزایای بیمه ای زیر استفاده میکنید:

سرمایه ی فوت عادی:در صورت فوت بیمه گذار مبلغی که خود او زمان عقد قرارداد تعیین میکند به هرکس که خود او مشخص کند ،واگذار میشود.این مقدار پول سرمایه ی فوت نام دارد که علاوه بر سرمایه ی اندوخته شده و سود آن به فرد مشخص شده در قرارداد واگذار میگردد.

سرمایه ی فوت بر اثرحادثه:اگر بیمه گذار بر اثر حادثه ای فوت کند تا سه برابر مبلغ سرمایه ی فوت بعلاوه ی اندوخته و سودش به کسی که در قرارداد مشخص شده واگذار می شود.

هزینه های پزشکی بر اثر حادثه:هر حادثه ای منجر به ایجاد هزینه ی پزشکی برای شما شود ،بیمه هزینه ی آن را می پردازد.

هزینه از کارافتادگی بر اثر حادثه:اگر بر اثر حادثه ای بیمه گذار از کار افتاده شود،علاوه بر آنکه سایر حق بیمه های او بخشیده می شودمبلغی تحت عنوان سرمایه ی از کارافتادگی به او تعلق میگیرد که میتواند آن را یکجا یا به صورت مستمری دریافت کند و این مبلغ علاوه بر سرمایه ی اندوخته و سود آن می باشد.

هزینه ی بیماریهای خاص:هزینه ی بیماریها و جراحی هایی چون پیوند اعضا را بیمه تقبل می نماید.

و اما بیمه نوین نرخ تورم را هم در بیمه نامه خود گنجانده است تا از ارزش پول شما کم نشود.این نرخ در از 0 تا 10 درصد در بیمه نامه شما تحت عنوان نرخ رشد سرمایه فوت و نرخ رشد حق بیمه گنجانده می شود.یعنی هرسال مبلغ ناچیزی (2000تومان)بر حق بیمه سال قبل خود می افزایید.

در پایان مدت قرارداد پول شما و سود آن که به بیشتراز 200میلیون تومان رسیده است،تقدیم میگردد.

چرا بیمه نوین:

بیمه نوین وابسته به بانک اقتصاد نوین(اولین بانک خصوصی کشور) با سرمایه ی اولیه 14میلیارد تومان کار خود را آغاز کرد.طرح جامع بیمه عمر و پس انداز با برطرف کردن نقص های سایر شرکت های بیمه گذار ،تبدیل به طرح کاملی شد که از همان ابتدا افراد آینده نگر و سودجو را به خود جذب نمود.

مزیت های بیمه نوین:

1- هزینه پزشکی و هزینه بیماری های خاص را فقط بیمه ی نوین به شما ارائه میدهد.

2- مبلغ حق بیمه فقط در بیمه نوین به صورت ماهانه هم قابل پرداخت است.

3- شما بعد از 6 ماه میتوانید سرمایه ی خود را بازخرید کنید.

4- در زمان سررسید،سالی یکبار می توانید نرخ حق بیمه یا سرمایه فوت یا نرخ رشد بیمه نامه را تغییر دهید.

5- بیمه نوین یک دفترچه درمان تکمیلی به شما هدیه میکند.

نکات خاص:

ما پیشنهاد میکنیم تا 5 سال بعد از عقد قرارداد بیمه نامه خود را بازخرید نکنید.

هر چه سرمایه ی شما سال های بیشتری بماند سود بیشتری به آن تعلق میگیرد.مخصوصا از سال بیستم به بعد.

هرچه سرمایه فوت شما بیشتر باشد سود شما هم بیشتر است.

هرچه نرخ رشد حق بیمه یا نرخ رشد سرمایه فوت بیشتر باشد سود شماهم بیشتر است.

ما پیشنهاد میکنیم نرخ رشد 10 درصد را برای حق بیمه خود انتخاب کنید تا از ارزش پول اندوخته ی شما در سال های آتی به دلیل نرخ تورم،کم نشود.

 

 

بله،همان طور که می بینید نه سحر و افسونی در کار است و نه حقه بازی.

ما برق شادی توام با تردید را در چشمان شما میبینیم.

تحقیق بیشتر و گرفتن جواب سوالات خود، اندک تردید شما را هم برطرف میکند.


+ نوشته شده در  جمعه 1389/05/01ساعت   توسط دانشجو  | 

جست و جو

 

کتاب روانشناسی عمومی از دکتر حمزه گنجی را خواندم و

یک کتاب روانشناسی دیگر را هم شروع کردم.

مطالب انگلیسی زیادی هم پیدا کردم که از بین آنها باید تعدادی را

برای ترجمه انتخاب کنم.

به سایت sciencedirect هم که دانشگاه به تازگی عضو آن شده است

هم سر زده و چند مقاله علمی مرتبط گرفتم.

استاد راهنما هم چند فایل pdfشامل

مقالات انگلیسی مربوط به موضوع جهت مطالعه به من دادند.

+ نوشته شده در  شنبه 1389/01/28ساعت   توسط دانشجو  | 

بهار.........

 

بهار سر زده آمد.

سال نو مبارک.

بهارتان بهروز

نوروزتان پیروز

+ نوشته شده در  چهارشنبه 1389/01/04ساعت   توسط دانشجو  | 

کتاب هوش اجتماعی از حمزه گنجی

 

جدیدا کتابی به نام هوش هیجانی را خواندم با ترجمه حمزه گنجی.

دارای تاریخچه و 28 سوال برای سنجش هوش هیجانی بود.

چند داستان واقعی را هم نقل کرده بود.

اما جالب بود که این کتاب در واقع ترجمه دو کتاب هستش.

که هردو در مورد هوش هیجانی و آزمونهای مربوطه، اند .

این کتاب همچنین منابع کتابی و اینترنتی زیادی هم داشت.

+ نوشته شده در  پنجشنبه 1388/12/27ساعت   توسط دانشجو  | 

کتاب دوم

 

کتاب روشهای تحقیق در علوم رفتاری تالیف دکتر رمضان حسن زاده 1383

با مطالعه کامل این کتاب خلاصه زیر را تهیه نمودم.

 

بخش اول:طرح تحقیق

بخش دوم:ادبیات تحقیق

بخش سوم:نمونه گیری

بخش چهارم:روشهای تحقیق

بخش پنجم:گردآوری و تحلیل داده ها وگزارش تحقیق

بخش ششم:خلاصه و نتیجه و پیشنهادات

 

این کتاب اجزای کل تحقیق را چنین میشمارد که توضیح جزییات آن را در قسمت ادامه مطلب می آورم.

Ò      اجزای کلی مطالب گزارش نهایی:

الف – پیشگفتار یا مطالب مقدماتی

ب – سازمان اصلی گزارش

ج _ کتاب شناسی یا مرجع

 


ادامه مطلب
+ نوشته شده در  جمعه 1388/12/21ساعت   توسط دانشجو  |